I think that it is a really interesting question. The abortion angle in Nevada is a strange one for three reasons right off the top of my head:

1. The bishop here does very little about it. So little, in fact, that you never hear anything run by the Church other than pro-life rosaries, which are not diocese-wide, leaving me with the impression that they are only organized by the particular parishes. It is a real shame that he is so mum about abortion.

2. As Dick Morris pointed out in his talk that I went to, Nevada has a huge percentage of constantly shifting population, such that any given election year, 30-40% of the people did not even live here for the last election. So it turns out to be very difficult to gauge the pro-life sentiment in the shifting masses, and because of that, I think the issue tends to become muted…not that people don’t care, but that no one knows how much.

3. Reid is a Mormon. Generally out here, the Mormon’s tend to be conservative, particularly on family issues. So it makes things interesting in his campaign to be attached to the Latter Days, while advocating such extreme policy. It really undercuts him, at least in my mind.

All of this is really just to say that I think that you are right in saying that he won’t want to add any more divisive issues on his record, and it will be interesting to watch as he maneuvers over the next 12 months. But, by the way, there are several radio adds airing these days that are attacking his pro-death stance (in this bill as well as over the past 6 years) even though he, just as Fearless Leader, pledged to reduce the number of abortions. So the message is already hitting the public, and I hope it will have some serious impact…

There was an interesting article in the Las Vegas Sun Sunday on the tough spot Reid finds himself in right now with the Health Care bill’s abortion provisions. It laid out the pressure he’s under from his party and pro-abortion groups to get any sort of Stupak-type language out of the Senate bill, but that his calculations need to take his re-election into account. The article seemed skeptical that abortion would be a particularly big problem for him since Nevada historically doesn’t get too charged up over the issue, but the author didn’t seem particularly friendly to the pro-life position. For myself, I can’t really see Reid wanting to add any more divisive issues to his record right now.

here’s the article: http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2009/nov/15/seeking-common-ground-abortion/