Cultural Gadfly

In the last 24 hours, the situation in Iran has taken a distinct and important turn. From Reuters:

The message of the Supreme Leader, whose right hand was crippled in a 1981 assassination attempt, was that defiance of his will amounted to a counter-revolutionary act, analysts said. Khamenei’s proclaimed support for Ahmadinejad gives a stark choice to Mousavi’s camp, which includes many pillars of Iran’s clerical and political elite, such as former presidents Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mohammad Khatami: capitulate or face the full force of the security and judicial apparatus.

But Mousavi has already, according to The Weekly Standard, made his choice by refusing to attend today’s prayer service in front of Tehran University with Khamenei. He told his supporters not to attend, and this illustrates the shift in the current conflict. Rather than the struggle merely being between Mousavi and Ahmadinejad in Iran’s farcical democracy, this illustrates a fragmentation of the mullah hegemony.

Khamenei is Iran’s Supreme Leader, his authority cannot, supposedly, be questioned. But with Mousavi acting in clear defiance, the current question is whether or not his supporters are also willing to go all the way. Mousavi is, as stated above, supported right now by many in the clerical ruling class, and this may form an irreparable rift between those who are not only the government of Iran, but the societal leaders as well.

As Ed Morrissey notes:

Mousavi was a candidate approved by the mullahs.  He’s part of the “ruling system,” not a “governing system.”  While he may have some stylistic differences with Ahmadinejad, Mousavi takes his orders from the same people as Ahmadinejad, which means that a Mousavi win would not make a tremendous difference in Iranian policy.  Barack Obama was correct when he pointed this out earlier this week.

However, the people of Iran also clearly understand this.  The crisis has moved beyond Mousavi, and Khamenei knows that.  The people in the street may shout Mousavi’s name, but their protests have evolved into a protest against being ruled and not governed.  Mousavi could choose to join that fight, or he could choose to remain within the ruling system, but the people on the street now may choose to fight absolute rule without him.  Khamenei can’t back down without losing his conceit of infallibility in temporal matters, and if the Iranians refuse to return to the yoke of tyranny, then this will get ugly very, very quickly.

The issue at hand speaks to the very heart of Iran’s society, and we should all pray that this is resolved peaceably, because such issues are extremely dangerous. The conflict here is not, unless Mousavi has a major change of heart, one between the status quo and a reform leader; the conflict is between a rabble and a ruling class. What remains to be seen is if the rabble has a coherent plan and the energy to continue the struggle, and if the regime is willing to use overwhelming force to end this debacle. Yet whatever happens, a huge shift has taken place in Iran’s social structure. Questions have been asked that should not have been asked, and actions have been taken by the demos that should never have been allowed. So while this current round of protests may not result in a significant change in Iran, it will indubitably have a significant effect on Iranian life in the coming years. The slumbering giant of the passive populace has, perhaps, begun to awake.

Categories: Foreign Policy \\ Tags: Iran, Mousavi