Cultural Gadfly

Great news this morning (via Hot Air):

An airstrike believed to have been carried out by a United States drone killed at least 60 people at a funeral for a Taliban fighter in South Waziristan on Tuesday, residents of the area and local news reports said…In a serious blow to Pakistan’s effort, on Tuesday an assassin loyal to Mr. Mehsud shot and killed a rival tribal leader, Qari Zainuddin, whom the government had hoped to use as an ally in its campaign to corner the Taliban leader.

The killing called into question the government’s strategy of exploiting tribal fissures in order to defeat Mr. Mehsud and was apparently intended to serve as a reminder that there were serious consequences for crossing him, analysts said…Pakistani jets have aimed at Mr. Mehsud’s hide-outs in recent days, and the funeral in Makeen that was hit on Tuesday was being held for a Taliban commander killed that day.

While the strike on the funeral may have been conducted by the Pakistani Air Force, residents and local news reports uniformly attributed it to a United States drone.

The dead may have included top commanders for Mr. Mehsud. The Geo Television Network, quoting unnamed sources, said that the dead included a trainer of suicide bombers named Qari Hussain as well as a Taliban commander named Sangeen, though there was no way to immediately verify the report.

Note the quick reaction of the Air Force (be it American or Pakistani): the Taliban commander was killed that morning, the funeral held later that day, and we still nabbed them. It will be interesting to see if we find out what other commanders were present at the funeral, and perhaps even Mehsud himself was there.

Note also that this attack takes place as the Taliban is rethinking its strategy in Pakistan. Via The Strategy Page:

“In Pakistan, Taliban leaders are suddenly trying to distance themselves from the growing number of terrorist attacks. The Taliban, and some politicians, now insist that these atrocities have nothing to do with Islam. This is an attempt by the Taliban to recover some of their popularity. The terrorist attacks, plus the earlier atrocities (especially against women) committed by the Taliban in the tribal territories, has really turned the country against them…
The army is now advancing into North and South Waziristan, and, as usual, the Taliban cannot hold a position against the troops. Taking to the hills and waging a guerilla war doesn’t work as well as it used to, because the army now has over 300 helicopters, and the Americans are always up there with their UAVs and photo satellites….

This loss of public support by Islamic groups tends to snowball, as with the ways in which the Taliban raises money. The Taliban call their extortion demands a “religious tax,” but people realize that the Taliban are also involved in drug smuggling (even though the Taliban condemns drug use) and kidnapping (for ransom). For years, the Taliban were some kind of folk heroes to many Pakistanis. No more, and that’s a big loss for the Taliban, perhaps a fatal one. But the Taliban must have a constant flow of cash (some estimates put it at over $100 million a year) to pay gunmen, and the support the families of those who get killed in Taliban service. Without the cash, the size of the Taliban would shrink to a few hundred diehards. “

The American strategy is becoming notably effective: we are indisputably dominant on the open battle field, but we are now choking them of resources, and hitting their top command whenever possible. The Taliban is facing difficulties on all levels: financial, leadership, and public support, and their dwindling ranks are becoming harder and harder to fill. An organization simply can’t last that long under all of these pressures, especially without the support of the people they are purportedly fighting for. The cracks in the Taliban are turning to canyons, the barbarians are on the run, and the G.I.’s are, once again, proving their mettle.

Categories: Foreign Policy \\ Tags: Pakistan, Taliban, War on Terror