Cultural Gadfly

This just in from Hot Air: Dede Scozzafava, the ACORN-Friendly, Big Labor-Backing, Tax-and-Spend, Margaret Sanger Award-Winning Radical in GOP Clothing GOP candidate in NY-23 has quit the race after the latest poll put her 15 points behind Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate, who came out a mere 1 point behind his Democrat opponent, Owens.

Apparently, she’s expected to throw her support behind Hoffman. But Ed Morrissey on Hot Air doesn’t think that matters:

This confirms the basic thrust of the three earlier polls, and especially the Daily Kos poll, which got the ranking of the candidates and the distribution of the vote almost exactly correct.  Scozzafava has seen her negatives explode, while her two opponents have only become more accepted as they became more well known.  She has no chance of winning this race, and her withdrawal leaves Hoffman with the Republican vote whether she endorses him or not.

Will the NRCC shift gears and start buying ads supporting Hoffman in the final three days of this race?

UPDATE:

From her farewell speech:

In recent days, polls have indicated that my chances of winning this election are not as strong as we would like them to be. The reality that I’ve come to accept is that in today’s political arena, you must be able to back up your message with money—and as I’ve been outspent on both sides, I’ve been unable to effectively address many of the charges that have been made about my record. But as I’ve said from the start of this campaign, this election is not about me, it’s about the people of this District. And, as always, today I will do what I believe serves their interests best.

It is increasingly clear that pressure is mounting on many of my supporters to shift their support. Consequently, I hereby release those individuals who have endorsed and supported my campaign to transfer their support as they see fit to do so. I am and have always been a proud Republican. It is my hope that with my actions today, my Party will emerge stronger and our District and our nation can take an important step towards restoring the enduring strength and economic prosperity that has defined us for generations.

On Election Day my name will appear on the ballot, but victory is unlikely. To those who support me – and to those who choose not to – I offer my sincerest thanks.

Riiiiiiight… Because this was totally because she didn’t have enough money, even with the backing of the RNC and NRCC.

It looks like she’s keeping her name on the ballot, but will no longer campaign. Ed Morrissey gives the scoop:

I had neglected to review the poll in much detail, but I suspect that Scozzafava’s withdrawal (or suspension, more accurately, since her name will stay on the ballot) hurts Bob Owens tremendously.  According to the poll, Hoffman had attracted 50% of the Republican vote, while Owens had 2/3rds of the Democrats.  Hoffman leads Owens among independents, 40%-35%, and the remaining 15% supporting Scozzafava will almost certainly break more towards Hoffman than Owens.  Owens will likely get more of Scozzafava’s Democratic supporters, but she only had 11%, while 14% have already gone to Hoffman.  Hoffman and Owens had a near-even split of the opposition in Scozzafava’s regional stronghold of Jefferson/Lewis/St. Lawrence counties, but I’d be surprised if Hoffman didn’t pick up more in those areas of disaffected Scozzafava voters, too.

Hoffman now has the default Republican endorsement with Scozzafava’s retreat, as well as all of the late momentum.

Categories: Congress, Politics \\ Tags: Conservative Party, Dede Scozzafava, Doug Hoffman, NY-23, RINO