Cultural Gadfly

Since Roland’s post below was such a good read, I figured I’d try to ride his coattails a bit today.

Karl Rove, Dr. Evil himself, took a look today at how the Senate is shaping up for Republicans next year. While he doesn’t think a full takeover of the Senate is likely, things are looking up across the board. Particularly encouraging is the fact that Republicans are so far successfully recruiting a slew of top tier candidates, on top of sliding polls for the left:

Political currents are running against the party of Barack Obama. Democrats now trail Republicans by four points in Gallup’s generic ballot poll. In 1994, the year the GOP took control of Congress, it wasn’t until March that Republicans took the lead in that poll—and then only by one point and for a short period of time.

With a good environment this election cycle, Republicans have recruited competitive candidates who could turn otherwise close contests into runaway victories, likely defeats into wins or at least close contests that, if things break right, tip to the GOP.

Today, there are only 40 Republicans in the Senate. In January 2011, there could be 44, 46 or more if the party runs strong campaigns in contests that haven’t jelled yet, or if some Democrats retire instead of risking defeat.

In addition to potentially strong races from Mark Kirk in Illinois and Mike Castle in Delaware, some of the most interesting races include:

In Connecticut, Sen. Chris Dodd trails former Republican Rep. Rob Simmons 35% to 48% in the latest Quinnipiac poll. In Arkansas, Sen. Blanche Lincoln trails Republican State Sen. Gilbert Baker 41% to 47% in the latest polls, though Mr. Baker must first get past a multi-candidate GOP primary. In California, Sen. Barbara Boxer is vulnerable. Former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina could be a strong candidate against her if she can win her nomination battle and use it to introduce herself to voters.

In Pennsylvania, Democrats are fighting themselves as Rep. Joe Sestak takes on Sen. Arlen Specter. Whoever wins that bruising primary will have to take on Republican Pat Toomey, a former congressman who is putting together a strong campaign.

Pat Toomey’s been a fun one to watch (Toomesday as some have called it), he only lost to Specter in the primaries last time around by five hundred votes or so. Blanche Lincoln’s vulnerability isn’t a huge surprise, but it takes a mental adjustment to seriously consider GOP Senators from California and Massachusetts. The only really vulnerable GOP incumbent is Mark Vitter in Louisiana, who trails Charlie Melancon by a point. But Louisiana only gave Obama 40%. I’d also be remiss in overlooking Marco Rubio in Florida, a Cuban who has many a Conservative heart a flutter.

So rah for all this for sure. But we’ve still got a year to go, and a lot could happen in that time. For one thing, these challengers aren’t really taking any fire yet, since the incumbents aren’t doing much active campaigning. We’ll need to see how well these guys can take a punch at some point

The AoS post where I found the link to Rove’s article is definitely worth the read:

I get that politics is a zero sum game, we win-they lose but I have one somber note…Republican gains (assuming there will be some, even some substantial ones) are pretty much coming because the Democrats have pissed people off faster than anyone thought possible. It’s not as if the Republicans are gaining because they have lots of new and popular ideas like in 1980 or 1994.

So let’s not forget a lot of these GOP types were the cause of our trip to the wilderness. This is a 3 step process…

Step 1- Win (in ’10 and ’12)
Step 2- ??? Hold to the principles of the rhetoric that get you there
Step 3- America Succeeds

A year is an eternity in politics, just ask Obama, Reid and Pelosi, so we shouldn’t get too focused on anything but Step 1 but the ground work will be laid now for what comes after that.

And just to be clear, 3rd party runs? Just Say No!

3rd party candidates focusing on spending will be a disaster that results in Democrats surviving. Complain all you want about the two major parties but that’s how the system works and I’m not interested in electing more Democrats to prove a point or something.

It continually intrigues me how the posters at AoS all act like a bizarre cross between dirty old men and teenage boys obsessed with “your mother” jokes, yet they can all sober up and offer dead-on common sense when necessary.

I do sometimes worry that not enough Conservatives have acknowledged that the GOP’s rising in public opinion more out of an anti-incumbent backlash than because the public particularly likes what the GOP is actually doing. Voters were fed up with Republicans the last two cycles, and figured it was time for a change, and now they’re just as ticked that the Democrats can’t do a better job. Running on the “I’m not that guy” platform will only get you so far (even if you aren’t John Kerry). The general impression is that things suck, and therefore, so do the politicians, whatever the party.

I think some Conservatives are finally starting to offer alternatives, something positive that voters can latch onto, but we need more of it. I know that’ll still take a while so I’m not predicting doom and gloom by any means. I think Republicans’ll probably find their voice and a good message at some point soon. That’s what needs to happen, especially to avoid a slew of 3rd party candidates who end up shooting us all in the foot. If some of these really promising candidates like Toomey and Rubio can emerge as figureheads for the movement, it’d go a long way.

Categories: Congress, Economy, Obama Craziness, Politics, RNC \\ Tags: 2010 Elections, Ace of Spades, Carl Rove, Conservatives, Democrats, Marco Rubio, Politics, Republicans, Senate